Premier League Winner
Undeniably, Manchester City is favored to win their sixth top-flight title in seven years after claiming an unprecedented treble last season. They enjoyed a stellar 2022-23 season, winning 44 of their 60 competitive matches and scoring three or more goals in 31 of those matches. They netted 150 goals across all competitions last season, more than any other team in Europe's top five leagues. Over 34% of these goals were scored by their star striker, Erling Haaland.
In his debut season, the 23-year-old broke the Premier League's single-season scoring record, and he could elevate his game even further in his second full season in English football. However, there are concerns at the Etihad Stadium. With Mateo Kovacic as their only significant new signing, City has lost key players like Ilkay Gundogan and Riyad Mahrez, and failed to secure promising talents like Jude Bellingham and Declan Rice.
On the other hand, Arsenal has made significant strides in their roster. They've enhanced their starting XI by spending nearly £200 million on Rice, Kai Havertz, and Jurrien Timber. Mikel Arteta has shown efficiency in transfer dealings, and if his young squad continues to improve, they could replicate their success from last season. Their participation in the Champions League could be a worry, but their squad appears to be deep enough to handle the rigors of top-tier midweek football, at least for the first half of the season.
Liverpool also promises an exciting campaign, bolstered by a squad overflowing with offensive firepower. After the departures of Fabinho and Jordan Henderson, they've added Dominik Szoboszlai and Alexis Mac Allister to their midfield. With talents like Mohamed Salah, Diogo Jota, Cody Gakpo, Darin Nunez, and Luis Diaz, Liverpool will be a thrill to watch this season, as evidenced by their high-scoring pre-season matches.
Manchester United, though considered a strong contender, still seems to lack depth in their squad. The only significant addition has been Mason Mount. Erik ten Hag is in dire need of a striker, and though Rasmus Hojlund is close to signing, he is an untested quantity in English football.
Premier League Relegation
The upcoming season could be a tough one for several teams. The gap between the top and bottom of the division has widened after an intense summer of recruitment. Six clubs have invested over £100 million on new players, while Brighton, Aston Villa, Brentford, Burnley, and Bournemouth have all spent over £60 million on fresh talent.
On the other hand, promoted teams Luton Town and Sheffield United have had a modest approach to spending. Sheffield United have brought in young talents Benie Traore and Anis Slimane for a little over £6 million, but neither has experience at the top level.
Sheffield United's top scorer from last season, Iliman Ndiaye, is close to leaving for Marseille, and influential loanee James McAtee has returned to Manchester City. Both players were pivotal in their successful Championship campaign last season.
Their manager, Paul Heckingbottom, who hails from Barnsley, has struggled in the Premier League, losing seven of his ten matches as a boss in the league.
Luton, meanwhile, have made four paid signings, including Ryan Giles and Tahith Chong. Despite their recruitment, it seems unlikely they'll mirror the success of Bournemouth, Fulham, and Nottingham Forest, who all managed to avoid relegation after being promoted last year.
Luton, who were promoted via the play-off final, relied heavily on a strong defence last season. They conceded just 39 goals all season and achieved 17 draws in their 46 matches. However, their scoring was a concern; they scored only 57 goals, just nine more than relegated Blackpool. This lack of scoring puts a lot of pressure on the defence, which could be their downfall against stronger opposition.
Both Nottingham Forest and Bournemouth, who managed to avoid relegation last season, are predicted to struggle this time around.
Premier League Top Goalscorer
Erling Haaland, without a doubt, is the favourite to be crowned the Premier League's top goalscorer. The 23-year-old Norwegian striker shattered nearly every record in his debut season with Manchester City and is expected to continue his impressive form.
With 52 goals in 53 appearances for City, including 16 instances where he scored 2 or more goals and six hat-tricks, he is the standout candidate for the Golden Boot.
However, there are other players who could make a strong impact. Harry Kane is considered Haaland's closest competitor, although rumours suggest he could be moving to Bundesliga champions Bayern Munich.
If Kane leaves, this could open up an opportunity for Brazilian forward Richarlison. Despite a challenging debut season in North London, Richarlison could be moved to the No. 9 role. He has shown his prowess in this position with Brazil at the World Cup and in a recent friendly where he scored a hat-trick in 45 minutes after replacing Kane.
Richarlison may not outscore Haaland, but with the likes of Son Heung-min and James Maddison creating opportunities in an attacking team managed by Ange Postecoglou, he could be a player to watch.
Mohamed Salah is another solid option. The Egyptian has won the Golden Boot three times and still managed to score 19 league goals last season with Liverpool finishing fifth in the division. His teammate Darwin Nunez could also be a contender, particularly as he will not be away at the African Cup of Nations at the beginning of 2024.
Top 4 Finish
Securing a spot in the top four of the Premier League not only brings prestige, but also guarantees a place in the following season's UEFA Champions League. The competition is fierce, and predicting the top four is a popular outright market for bettors.
Manchester City, with their consistent high-level performances and deep squad, are considered strong contenders for a top-four finish. The reigning champions will be aiming to retain their title, and a top-four finish will be the minimum expectation.
Liverpool and Arsenal, with their reinforced squads, are also expected to challenge for the top four. Liverpool's formidable attacking force and Arsenal's revamped starting XI suggest they could both secure a top-four finish.
Manchester United, despite their current squad issues, can't be ruled out. Their history and pedigree mean they're always a contender for a top-four spot.
Top Half/Bottom Half Finish
Another outright market that bettors often consider is predicting whether a team will finish in the top or bottom half of the table.
Teams like Tottenham, Leicester City, and Everton, who have shown consistent performances and have well-balanced squads, are likely to finish in the top half.
On the other hand, newly promoted teams such as Luton Town and Sheffield United, or teams that narrowly avoided relegation last season, might find themselves in the bottom half.
Outright Market Betting Strategy
Outright market betting offers a unique set of opportunities and challenges. While the potential for returns can be substantial, these bets often require a season-long commitment. Here are a few strategies to consider:
- Early Season Betting: Odds can be most favourable before the season starts or in the early stages when uncertainty is high. This is a time when perceived underdogs can be undervalued. Betting early can lock in these odds.
- Late Season Betting: In contrast, late-season betting is for those who prefer to let some of the season unfold before wagering. This allows for a more informed bet based on teams' performances, but the odds might be less favourable.
- Hedging Your Bets: In outright betting, it's common to hedge your bets. This could mean backing more than one team for the title or other markets. This strategy can provide insurance and increase your chances of earning a return.
- Research and Analysis: Keep an eye on transfer news, managerial changes, team morale, and injury updates. These factors can significantly impact a team's prospects. Staying informed can give you an edge.
- Value Betting: Look for bets where you believe the probability of an event occurring is greater than what the bookmaker's odds suggest. This discrepancy is known as a value bet.
- Patience: Outright betting is a long-term investment. Patience is key, as your bet could look unlikely at times throughout the season.
- Bankroll Management: Given that outright bets take an entire season to settle, it's essential to manage your bankroll effectively. Ensure that you're comfortable with having a portion of your bankroll tied up for this period.
At ZetBet, we're committed to providing you with all the insights and updates you need to form your betting strategies. Our platform is designed to keep you informed and offer the best odds for all your outright market bets. Enjoy the thrill of the season-long journey, and may the odds be ever in your favour!